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Crypto TA Alert: 50-Week SMA Breakdown Triggers Switch to 50 2-Week SMA — Bias Risk and Trade Setups

According to @milesdeutscher, the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) on his chart has broken down, and he switched to a 50 2-week SMA to fit his bias. Source: Miles Deutscher on X, Nov 21, 2025. A breakdown below a 50-week SMA is typically read as medium-term trend deterioration and loss of dynamic support, often prompting traders to cut risk or wait for a weekly close back above the average. Source: Investopedia, Simple Moving Average; StockCharts, Moving Averages as Support and Resistance. Switching indicators post hoc to match bias introduces data-snooping/overfitting risk and can erode edge, making pre-defined multi-timeframe rules preferable. Source: CFA Institute, Technical Analysis and Behavioral Biases; AQR, Dangers of Data Mining in Backtests. In crypto markets, reactions around widely watched SMAs can amplify volatility and leveraged liquidations, so sizing and stop placement are often set relative to weekly levels. Source: BIS, Cryptoasset risks and volatility; CME Group, Risk Management Education. Actionable takeaway: if the 50W SMA is lost, many technicians seek reclaim and confirmation or confluence (e.g., 200D MA, prior weekly highs) before increasing exposure. Source: CFA Institute, Technical Analysis; StockCharts, Moving Average Trading Strategy.

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